Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury parent Macy's lifted full-year sales and earnings guidance Wednesday as second-quarter results bested its forecasts. Kohl's curbed expectations for its decline in full-year sales, while TJ Maxx parent TJX Cos. (TJX) recently firmed its view for comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 and lifted its earnings outlook.
"Our customer across nameplates has remained resilient through the first half of the year and quarter to date," Macy's Chief Executive Tony Spring said on a call with analysts. "However, given the uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on demand, we believe it's prudent to continue to incorporate a more choiceful consumer into our guidance for the remainder of the year."
Tariff worries have hit consumers in 2025 as White House announcements, pauses and deals with countries around the world have led to concerns about rising costs. On Friday, a US federal appeals court ruled that most of the tariffs weren't legal, while President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would seek for that decision to be overturned at the Supreme Court.
"Tariffs have created significant disruption to the retail supply chain resulting in increased costs for retailers large and small," the National Retail Federation said after the court ruling. "The ongoing instability threatens economic growth and will ultimately, and most certainly, result in higher prices for goods and services to be paid by American consumers."
Kohl's is seeing pressure on lower-to-middle income consumers, who "continue to prioritize value and are trading down into lower opening price point products," interim CEO Michael Bender said on a call with analysts last week. Higher income shoppers "have proven to be more resilient," he said.
The retailer pegged its gross margin expansion for the year at 30 basis points, the bottom end of its previous range of 30 to 50 basis points, Chief Financial Officer Jill Timm said on the call.
"We did bring the margin down to the low end, given the fact that we know we have to navigate through tariffs," she said. Kohl's sees a full-year net sales decrease of 5% to 6%, narrowed from the prior view for a 5% to 7% drop.
TJX's guidance "assumes that we'll be able to offset the incremental tariff pressure on our business this year," CFO John Klinger said on a call Aug. 20. The HomeGoods parent sees consolidated comparable sales up 3% in fiscal 2026, after giving a range in May of 2% to 3% growth. It also sees earnings of $4.52 to $4.57 a share, up from the prior guidance for $4.34 to $4.43.
Still, tariffs may already be putting a dent in consumer plans for the key holiday shopping season, according to a survey by consulting firm PwC. Seasonal spending is expected to drop by 5% year-on-year, and 84% "expect to cut back over the next six months, citing rising prices, new tariffs and the higher cost of living," the firm said Wednesday.
"People are going to keep shopping, but with continuing concerns about tariffs and elevated prices (especially on electronics, apparel, toys, food, and household staples), value-conscious choices are likely to define the season."
PwC said that the survey results captured the mood in June, when there was more uncertainty around tariffs.
Macy's is still "well-positioned for the fall and holiday seasons," CEO Spring said Wednesday. "Our multi-brand, multi-category, and multi-nameplate model gives us the flexibility to respond to consumer demand in all environments."
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