Markets: United States Treasuries recovering as Asian stocks sell off sharply (Nikkei -3%) and amid weaker e-minis. 30-year Japanese government bond yields above 3.75%. Brent turns rangebound around US$116/barrel. The euro (EUR) briefly drops below US$1.15, then recovers.
Fed: Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson is "worried" about the risk that transmission of higher fuel prices into inflation expectations is "faster and maybe a little bit more durable," says productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) are still to be seen.
Fed: Senate Banking Committee plans confirmation hearing in the week of April 13 for President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to become Federal Reserve chair (Punchbowl News).
U.S.: House passes Department of Homeland Security stopgap funding bill.
U.S./Iran: President Trump weighs military operation to extract Iran's Uranium (WSJ). Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations (Washington Post). Trump claims Iran gave in to U.S. demands, he sees progress in indirect talks with Iran, says the U.S. could "take the oil in Iran" and control of Kharg Island "very easily" (FT). Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff thinks there will be Iran meetings this week, says enrichment and stockpiling are red lines for the US. Pakistan prepares direct talks between the U.S. and Iran.
Middle East: Houthis join the Iran war by launching missiles at Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says strikes are creating "cracks" in the Iranian regime. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey discussed a proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz (WSJ). France and Britain are leading plans to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a postwar contingency (NYT).
==EUROPE:
ECB: Governing Council (GC) member Isabel Schnabel says the European Central Bank must "carefully weigh" its decision and shouldn't "overreact", but "if there is a more persistent impact on inflation, monetary policy will need to act, and it will act decisively." GC member Francois Villeroy de Galhau says the ECB is prepared to act to rein in inflation expectations, will be guided by data, and debate on pre-established dates is "very premature" (La Stampa).
Italy: Energy measures won't break fiscal limits, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti says.
Ratings: S&P affirms Slovenia at AA/stable. DBRS confirms Croatia at A/stable. Fitch affirms Bulgaria at BBB+/stable.
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