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TSX Closer: The Index Rebounds To Near Record Levels, Buoyed By Gold; But Tariff Uncertainty Remains

4:27 PM ET 10/08/2025 - MT Newswires

Today, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 150.27 points or 0.5% at 30,501.99, leaving it just 30 points shy of Monday's record close of 30,531.88. Sectors were mixed, with Base Metals, boosted by record gold prices, up 3.4%, and Info Tech up near 3%. Telecom was the biggest loser, down 1%.

In reference to gold, Rosenberg Research published a note today in which it said decomposing equity market returns across the main drivers revealed some notable trends and takeaways. In it, the research said Canada, Japan, and India have seen the largest earnings lift. It noted the TSX has seen fundamental tailwinds, 30% share of YTD returns, from the huge rally in gold, and thus the gold miners, as well as the banks, but added 60% has come from an expanding forward price earnings (P/E) multiple (from 15x to 17x).

On economics, The Canadian Press is reporting premiers remain at odds over how best to respond to U.S. tariffs, a day after Prime Minister Mark Carney left a meeting in Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump without announcing any breakthroughs on a trade deal. Speaking at a conference in Toronto hosted by BMO and Eurasia Group, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he remains prepared to cut off shipments of energy, minerals and other exports if the United States refuses to relent on tariffs. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, also speaking at the U.S.-Canada Summit, said she still doesn't support halting shipments south.

But CTV News is reporting U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is dismissing any prospect of a comprehensive auto deal with Canada, according to three sources in the room when he made the comments. Lutnick made the comments during a discussion under Chatham House Rules at the Eurasia Group's Canada-U.S. Summit in Toronto on Wednesday, a day after the second in-person meeting in Washington between Trump and Carney. According to the sources, Lutnick said the United States could continue buying parts from Canada, "but that's about it." The U.S. has a 25% tariff on vehicles imported from Canada that are not compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) since April.

Meanwhile, one Macquarie strategist thought yesterday's meeting between Trump and Carney "didn't go as poorly as some... made it sound". After all, noted Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, Trump exhibited a fondness for Carney, which he never did for Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

"And if that's the case," Wizman said, "the long-term dis-inflationary overhang from U.S. import tariffs in Canada may eventually fade. That's an optimistic view, of course, for the CAD, relatively speaking. It would mark the emergence from the very slow growth experienced by Canada in Q2, when GDP declined by 1.5%."

Over the summer, the U.S. hiked its tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, with Canada introducing a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum. Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at BMO Financial Group, said: "Surprisingly, despite hefty duties on steel, U.S. production has nary risen on a sustained basis, at least not through September. This reflects two things: steel imports have yet to decline much; and, capacity utilization is close to its long-run mean, so production is likely near its short-term limit. This suggests that until new capacity is added and production increases, pressure could build on steel prices when imports decline, as appeared to be the case in 2018-19."

Of commodities today, gold continued its record run higher with its second day above the US$4,000 mark on high demand and buying pressure despite a higher dollar. Gold for December delivery was last seen up $59.30 to $4,063.70 per ounce.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a fourth day, climbing on supply risks even as a report showed U.S. inventories rose above expectations last week amid fresh warnings the market is oversupplied. WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.82 to settle at US$62.55 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen up $0.83 to US$66.28.