According to Avery Shenfeld over at CIBC, Bank of Canada "isn't going to sound hawkish enough" on Wednesday to support those who, at least prior to today's "poor" jobs figures, were pricing in a rate hike or two this year. Instead, Shenfeld expects the BoC to be vague about the inflation outlook given all of the uncertainties surrounding the war and oil prices, and "not terribly confident" about the growth picture either.

Shenfeld expects the not-seasonally-adjusted headline CPI figure on Monday will see the "typical heat" of a February, but he noted the 0.6% consensus gain will translate into a benign 0.2% seasonally adjusted monthly pace, and added the Bank's core measures should also provide "comforting news" about where inflation stood before the energy shock.

Next Friday's total retail sales, Shenfeld said, could match the flash estimate with a 1.5% January gain, but he added that's a "lonely outlier" among other Q1 data that have looked weak, and comes off a soft stretch for real retail volumes. CIBC notes consensus is for a 1.3% rise in total retail sales, and for a 1.4% rise ex-auto month over month.

Also on the calendar for next week will be February Housing Starts on Monday, with CIBC forecasting 260k, followed by February Existing Home Sales on Tuesday and then January Int'l Securities Transactions data on Wednesday, St. Patrick's Day. There will an auction of $5.3 billion in 5-YR CANADAs, Thursday, and then February Industrial Product Prices and Raw Materials data at the end of next week.

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