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OPEC+ Likely to Hold Output Steady Amid Oversupply Worries, Russia-Ukraine Talks, Analysts Say

1:36 PM ET 11/28/2025 - MT Newswires

Earlier this month, eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies -- collectively known as the OPEC+ -- said they will raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December, following a similar boost for November.

The cartel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, surprised markets with their decision to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026. Analysts viewed that move as showing caution amid uncertainty around US sanctions on Russian crude.

"At this stage, I do not expect the eight OPEC+ countries to adjust their production policy from the last meeting," Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, told MT Newswires in an e-mailed statement. "As the market already widely anticipates an oversupply from December through (the first quarter) next year, lower effective supply and a continued pause should help improve market fundamentals and, to some extent, give Russia more room to manage the sanctions."

Russia faces a series of US and European Union sanctions for invading Ukraine. Last month, the Trump administration announced sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, citing Moscow's "lack of serious commitment to a peace process."

But some optimism has emerged lately over a potential Russian-Ukraine peace deal.

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump said that the US-drafted, 28-point plan for a peace deal has been "fine-tuned, with additional input from both sides, and there are only a few remaining points of disagreement."

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Moscow was ready for "serious" discussions about the draft proposals, CNBC reported.

"I do not expect the peace plan or the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions to alter the December or (first-quarter) course, as Russia is likely to find ways to circumvent the sanctions," Xu said.

Buyers such as India are expected to keep importing Russian crude, though at lower volumes, while some Asian refiners are increasing December-loading Middle Eastern shipments, Xu said. This points to limited pressure from Russia for higher quotas, and Middle Eastern OPEC+ members may prefer to continue their planned output increases, she added.

"Perhaps there will be some statements (at the OPEC+ meeting) about observing the market going forward and maintaining focus on key metrics (inventories for example)," said Neil Crosby, assistant vice president, oil analytics, at Sparta Commodities. "I don't expect it to be a big meeting to be honest."

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 1.3% at $59.41 a barrel in Friday afternoon trade, while Brent gained 0.5% to $63.17. For November, both benchmarks are down 2.6% each, stretching losses into the fourth month.

In a separate Sunday meeting, the full OPEC+ group is likely to agree on an output capacity mechanism, Reuters reported Friday, citing unnamed sources. In May, the cartel said this capacity assessment would be used as reference for 2027 production baselines.

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency raised its global oil supply growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 and warned that market balances appear "increasingly lopsided," with demand lagging.