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TSX Closer: New Record Close, Buoyed By Carney-Trump Talks; Rosenberg Research Mulls the Slumping U.S. Dollar

4:15 PM ET 08/21/2025 - MT Newswires

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 176.67 points, or 0.6%, to 28,055.43, beating the prior record close of 27,993.43 struck on August 13. Most sectors were higher, led by Energy, up near 1.7%, and Base Metals, up 1.5%. Health Care was down near 0.4%.

Among individual stocks, Air Canada (AC.TO) said late afternoon it continues to ramp up its operations after a spat with a related union and the company expects to deliver close to its full network schedule by Friday, August 22. Its shares closed up $0.24 to $19.35.

In relation to Carney and Trump talks, the pair reportedly discussed trade and "a new economic and security relationship." They also discussed "long-term peace" in Ukraine and Europe and agreed to talk again soon.

The talks come as Trump has introduced 35% duties on Canadian imports, even if most goods are protected under an existing free trade deal between the two nations. Canada is also subject to tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and automobiles. But it has also introduced retaliatory tariffs of its own on U.S. imports.

Of commodities, gold futures edged lower late afternoon Thursday as treasury yields and the dollar rose today on further weak economic data, firming expectations the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates next month, though traders are awaiting a Friday speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clearer signals on the central bank's intentions. Gold for December delivery was last seen down $5.20 to US$3,383.30 per ounce.

But West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher for a second day following a day-prior report showing a larger than expected drop in U.S. inventories as summer demand continues to run hot, while fading hopes for a ceasefire in Russia's war on Ukraine that would see sanctions on Russian exports eased also offered support.

WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.81 to settle at US$63.52 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.94 to US$67.78.

On commodities and broader stock markets, Rosenberg Research published a note entitled 'Market Implications from a Slumping U.S. Dollar' in which it said a secular dollar bear market will have global implications across asset classes. Among highlights, the research noted the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index has "recently broken below long-term support trendlines", with "risk of morphing from a cyclical correction to a secular bear market".

The research sees commodities, which are priced in U.S. dollars, as one area with significant negative correlations that stands to profit. It noted the overall CRB index, a commodity index calculated based on the prices of commodity futures, "commands a strong negative correlation" between asset class and the trade weighted dollar index of -0.70, broadly based across underlying components such as copper (-0.64; base metals more broadly), silver (-0.60), WTI crude (-0.59), and gold (-0.50).

Of interest to those who invest across North America, at the U.S. equity sector level, Rosenberg Research shifted its methodology slightly to isolate relative outperformance to the benchmark (S&P 500) as opposed to just gross performance. It said Materials (-0.44) is "by far the biggest beneficiary" in this regard thanks to underlying commodity prices, followed by Industrials (-0.27), Technology (-0.16; a function of large international revenues), and Energy (-0.12) to a lesser extent. "Energy presents an interesting result, showing a smaller correlation to the dollar than we would expect, though results are likely influenced by the post-Russia/Ukraine war dislocations in global energy markets," the research added.

Also of interest, the research noted that Brazil (commodity-centric) at -0.45 and Sweden (heavily weighted towards Industrials at 40%) at -0.41 topped a list of nations that have experienced the most consistent excess returns against the MSCI ACWI ex. U.S. index when the dollar has been declining. Canada was 10th on the list at -0.24.