We raise our 12-month price target by $83 to $287, 17x our 2026 EPS estimate (from 13x). We raise our 2025 EPS estimate to $15.49 from $14.21 and 2026's to $16.89 from $15.71, reflecting gross bookings momentum and margin expansion. EXPE saw strong demand (gross bookings +12% Y/Y) driving Q3 results above management and Street expectations. The 17x multiple reflects EXPE's evolution toward a higher-margin, asset-light marketplace model as well as greater growth opportunities within the B2C and B2B segments (Generative AI, advertising, geographical expansion). However, we maintain our Hold opinion. In our view, company guidance on gross bookings growth assumes strong trends through October will continue, limiting the potential for upside surprises, particularly if macroeconomic headwinds to consumer spending materialize in the travel industry (although travel spending has been healthy so far).

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