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US Equity Indexes Trade Near All-Time Highs as Fed Rate Cut in Play After Strong Retail Sales

1:20 PM ET 09/16/2025 - MT Newswires

The Nasdaq Composite traded less than 0.1% lower at 22,345.1 after touching an all-time high of 22,397.5 earlier in the session. The S&P 500 was down less than 0.1% to 6,610.2 after scaling a peak of 6,626.99 intraday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.2% to 45,791.6, still trading close to its record of 46,137.20.

Energy and consumer discretionary were among the gainers, while utilities led the decliners.

In economic news, retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, above the 0.2% increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following the previous month's 0.6% gain. Excluding both motor vehicles and a 0.5% increase in gasoline station sales, retail sales were still up 0.7% in August after a 0.3% gain in July.

Meanwhile, industrial production rose by 0.1% in August, in contrast with a 0.1% drop expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following a downwardly revised 0.4% decrease in July.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy decision and the Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday, both of which investors will parse to gauge the extent of easing in the pipeline after an almost certain 25-basis-point cut in September.

Markets are pricing a 67% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower interest rates by 75 basis points between September and December, up from 36% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The US Senate approved Stephen Miran, one of President Donald Trump's top advisors, to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors late Monday. At the same time, an appeals court left in place a lower court's block of Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, allowing both to participate at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Senate voted 48-47 to confirm Miran on Monday, according to media reports.

The ICE US Dollar Index declined 0.7% to 96.64.

Most US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year down one basis point to 4.02% and the two-year rate 2.5 basis points lower at 3.51%.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures jumped 2% to $64.57 a barrel.

In company news, Steel Dynamics' (STLD) shares jumped 7% intraday, among the top performers on the S&P 500. The steel producer said it expects Q3 earnings to be higher sequentially and annually, buoyed by improved profit from its three operating businesses.